EMERGING MARKETS FIELD NOTE 01

Currency moves.
Markets reprice.

A 20-year look at exchange rates and equity returns across the five original BRICS markets, built from observed monthly data.

Explore the evidence Read the paper
JAN 2006 — DEC 2025 MONTHLY · LOCAL CURRENCY 5 MARKETS
ORIGINAL BRICS
Source map
01 — MARKET PERFORMANCE

What changes with the currency?

Index price returns and exchange-rate moves. Choose a market to inspect its exposure.

RETURN OBSERVATIONS…paired monthly returns
COUNTRIES05original BRICS membership
PERIOD2006 — 2025latest available sample
INFERENCEHAC · 3 LAGSNewey–West standard errors
A

Equity index, rebased

Local-currency price index · first observed month = 100

PRICE INDEX
Rebased separately at the first observation in the selected window.Dividends excluded
B

Estimated FX exposure

Return associated with 1% depreciation

β FX
Negative values mean depreciation coincides with lower local-market returns.
02 — MODEL CHECK

Does the FX signal hold?

Compare the currency-only model with one that controls for the average return in the other BRICS markets. This sensitivity check uses the same months in both models.

Model notes

FX beta before and after control

Same matched observations in both models

COEFFICIENT COMPARISON
FX only+ other-BRICS return

What changes?

Selected market · model comparison

— mo.
The adjusted regression uses the same months for both specifications, so the coefficient change reflects the added control rather than a changed date sample. HAC(3) errors are reported in the paper.Read method
03 — DATA PROVENANCE

Every series, accounted for.

Historical market observations used in the calculations below—not simulated or generated data.

Full source notes
🇧🇷

Brazil

B3 · São Paulo
observed
EQUITY INDEXIbovespa^BVSP
USD EXCHANGE RATEBRL / USDBRL=X
Yahoo Finance
🇷🇺

Russia

Moscow Exchange
observed
EQUITY INDEXMOEX IndexIMOEX
USD EXCHANGE RATERUB / USDRUB=X
MOEX ISS + Yahoo Finance
🇮🇳

India

National Stock Exchange
observed
EQUITY INDEXNifty 50^NSEI
USD EXCHANGE RATEINR / USDINR=X
Yahoo Finance
🇨🇳

China

Shanghai Stock Exchange
observed
EQUITY INDEXShanghai Composite000001.SS
USD EXCHANGE RATECNY / USDCNY=X
Yahoo Finance
🇿🇦

South Africa

Johannesburg Stock Exchange
observed
EQUITY INDEXFTSE/JSE Top 40^J200.JO
USD EXCHANGE RATEZAR / USDZAR=X
Yahoo Finance

Coverage: January 2006 – December 2025. Yahoo Finance chart history supplies four equity indexes and all FX pairs; MOEX ISS supplies Russia’s IMOEX monthly candles. The included panel is a frozen extract through December 2025; index history starts vary by market. Bloomberg was not available, so no Bloomberg series are represented here.

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THE FULL STUDY

Methods, estimates, caveats.

Read the paper behind the dashboard, including the model specification, references, and limits of the data.

Open research paper